คำเตือน: CFD เป็นตราสารที่ซับซ้อนและมีความเสี่ยงสูงที่จะสูญเสียเงินอย่างรวดเร็ว เนื่องจากการใช้เลเวอเรจ
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Cboe EuroCurrency Volatility Index (EVZ)
A measure of the implied volatility of EUR/USD options and is derived by Cboe Global Markets using a methodology similar to that of the VIX for equities. It is an annualized percentage of how much the EUR/USD is expected to move in the next 30 days, according to the market.
This is like the VIX for the world’s most traded currency pair. EUR/USD options are costly when EVZ is high. The market is pricing in big moves. When EVZ is low, options are cheap; this is the consensus, the calm. It is used by FX traders as an FX market stress indicator and as a direct trading tool through FX index options.
EVZ spikes around big risk events such as ECB Meetings, US CPI Releases, eurozone sovereign stress, and geopolitical shocks. If macro uncertainty is low, and EUR/USD is within a tight trading range for several weeks, then it squeezes. There is no apparent directional bias for currency vol, unlike equity vol. The EUR/USD may gap up or down. That renders EVZ a cleaner pure-vol gauge than VIX.
Example: If markets are evenly split between hold and cut in an ECB decision, then EVZ will increase as dealers bid up the options. An options volatility trader sells the straddles before the meeting and then buys them back afterward, making a profit on the compression of a straddle’s implied vol as its risk diminishes over the meeting.
CBOE Put-Call Ratio
The ratio of put volume to call volume on the Chicago Board Options Exchange which is published daily. Above 1.0 means there were more puts traded than calls , (bearish sentiment). Under 1.0 means more calls (bullish). Simple division. That’s where the interpretation comes in handy.
The put/call ratio is a contrarian indicator. Extremes in either direction are usually a signal of positioning excess rather than prescience. When the ratio spikes to very high levels, fear has often peaked, and a relief rally may be near. If it falls to unusually low levels, complacency may be setting in ahead of a correction.
Traders tend to pay attention to the equity-only version, which strips out index options that institutions use to hedge portfolios and captures speculative and retail positioning more cleanly. A day’s reading is noise. More information is contained in a pattern that continues over days or weeks.
It is best at extremes of multi-year magnitude, not as a day-to-day signal.
Example: Equity-only put-call ratio reaches its highest level in years after several weeks of consecutive equity market declines. Traders fearfully piling in puts at high premiums. A counter-trend trader would interpret this as a contrary signal
Central bank
A financial institution that manages a country’s monetary policy and regulates its financial system.
Central Bank Digital Currency (CBDC)
A virtual version of a nation’s fiat currency that’s issued and backed directly by its central bank. It’s not a cryptocurrency, or a stablecoin though. A CBDC is a legal tender, like a banknote in a digital device or ledger, instead of a wallet.
The majority of proposed CBDC systems are of a two-layered approach. The central bank gives to commercial banks, who give to businesses and people. This will maintain the status quo of the current banking system. Some designs skip it altogether, offering citizens direct accounts at the central bank, a structural change with significant repercussions for commercial bank deposit funding and the generation of credit.
The allure is obvious: programmable money, speedy settlement, enhanced financial inclusion, better monetary-policy transmission. The downside, however, is equally obvious: loss of bank disintermediation during deposit movement to the central bank, surveillance issues, and systemic cyber vulnerabilities arising from reliance on a single digital infrastructure for the monetary system.
At present, the most advanced implementation of a digital currency by a major economy is China’s digital yuan (e-CNY).
Example: A central bank is testing a retail CBDC, with citizens using digital wallets via the government’s app. In a down economy, stimulus checks are deposited right into wallets without the help of a bank or the clearinghouse. The money is received when it can be spent, the goal of the exercise.
Central Bank Intervention
A direct intervention when a central bank directly buys or sells its own currency on the foreign exchange market in an effort to influence the exchange rate. Most big central banks say they target excessive volatility, not specific rate levels, but the line between the two quickly thins when a move gets fast and disorderly.
Two flavors. Sterilized intervention offsets the domestic monetary effect. The bank buys FX and, at the same time, sells domestic bonds. The money supply stays the same. Unsterilized intervention allows the transaction to influence the money supply. Sterilized operations are often less durable since they do not change the underlying rate differential that drives the move.
But verbal intervention, where officials talk about currency levels without actually trading, is cheaper and sometimes just as effective if markets believe the threat is credible. Interventions are best suited to smooth out disorderly conditions, not reverse a fundamentally driven trend. Eventually, a central bank that is trying to prop up a structurally overvalued currency will exhaust its reserves.
Example: Major Asian currency breaks through a psychologically important level in thin overnight trading. The central bank steps in and sells USD reserves to pull the rate back. The morning session has brought the market to a calm. Officials issue a brief statement calling the move disorderly and not reflective of economic fundamentals
Central banks
Public institutions that deal with a country’s currency, regulate monetary policy and serve as the lender of last resort to the banking system. All the major economies have one. The Federal Reserve, European Central Bank, Bank of England, Bank of Japan, People’s Bank of China, Reserve Bank of India, all central banks, all with variants of the same basic mandate.
The most important tool is the policy interest rate: increase it to combat inflation, decrease it to stimulate growth. However, today, central banks have a lot more to do. They impose reserve requirements, operate in the open market, run quantitative easing programs, administer foreign-exchange reserves, oversee systemically important banks, and, in some jurisdictions, directly purchase equities and bonds.
Central bank independence is an asset. It is theorised that the electoral incentives of elected governments are such that they provide a structural incentive to run loose monetary policy (stimulus feel-good; inflation pain comes later). The fact that rate decisions are delegated to technocrats with fixed terms insulates them from electoral cycles. In reality, it is never complete independence; the relationship between central banks and governments is negotiated continuously.
Example: In 2022, the central banks of the developed world coordinated the quickest hiking cycle in 40 years. The sixteen months between zero and 5.25% at the Fed followed a similar pattern to those of the Bank of England and the ECB. There is no formal coordination mechanism, but the sequencing was so tight that the currency markets considered it a synchronised pivot. Central banks of emerging markets that had already started increasing it in 2021 (Brazil, South Africa, India) were finally ahead of the curve.
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