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CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

CFDs are complex instruments and come with a high risk of losing money rapidly due to leverage. You should consider whether you understand how CFDs work and whether you can afford to take the high risk of losing your money.

25 April

Outlook:

In the week ahead, we provide you with all the necessary to build your strategy during the upcoming week with extra knowledge and up-to-date updates.

Investors will be watching corporates earnings, hoping that solid earnings will help the equity markets. Meanwhile, both the U.S. and the Eurozone are to release preliminary data on first-quarter growth along with what will be closely watched inflation readings.

In the U.S.

Data on U.S. economic growth and inflation will be under the spotlight this week due to concerns over whether the Fed can oversee a delicate plan for the economy as it acts aggressively to curb soaring inflation.

First-quarter growth preliminary data with GDP expected to slow sharply to 1.1% from its value in the last quarter in 2021 at 6.9%. Furthermore, the GDP data will be followed a day later by the personal consumption expenditures index, believed to be the Fed preferred meter of inflation.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell said last week “a half-point interest rate increase will be on the table” in the net meeting on May 3-4. Fed Chairman added that investors expecting a series of half-point hikes were “reacting appropriately, generally” to the Fed’s emerging fight against inflation.

The economic calendar also features durable goods orders, CB consumer confidence, new home sales, pending home sales, initial jobless claims, the Chicago PMI, and consumer sentiment.

U.S. Major in The Week Ahead:

DateEventForecastPrevious
26-AprCore Durable Goods Orders m/m0.50%-0.60%
26-AprDurable Goods Orders m/m1.00%-2.10%
26-AprCB Consumer Confidence108.5107.2
28-AprAdvance GDP q/q1.00%6.90%
28-AprAdvance GDP Price Index q/q7.30%7.10%
28-AprUnemployment Claims178K184K
29-AprCore PCE Price Index m/m0.30%0.40%
29-AprRevised UoM Consumer Sentiment65.865.7

Eurozone

The Eurozone is to publish data on first-quarter GDP amid preliminary data on consumer price inflation for April, which is expected to come in at 7.4%, almost four times higher than the European Central Bank’s 2% target. Last week ECB President Christine Lagarde said the ECB is likely to end its bond purchase scheme early in the third quarter and raise rates before the end of the year to combat rising inflation.

But the war in Ukraine is clouding the picture for the ECB resulting in high energy prices and disruptions to supply chains caused by the pandemic and aggravated by the war acting as a drag on growth.

European earnings get underway in earnest in the coming week and while companies are expected to have coped with higher inflation in the first quarter, investors will be keenly focused on their outlooks for the rest of the year.

In the French elections, market participants misjudged some presidential candidates, but a victory by Marine Le Pen would be a big surprise. Following last week’s TV debate, incumbent President Emmanuel Macron is at a 12-point lead in the polls. Many analysts have speculated that a Le Pen victory could trigger a constitutional crisis.

European Major in The Week Ahead:

DateEventForecastPrevious
24-AprFrench Presidential Election  
24-AprIMF Meetings  
25-AprGerman IFO Business Climate88.390.8
25-AprBelgian NBB Business Climate0.20.4
27-AprGerman GfK Consumer Climate-14.3-15.5
28-AprGerman Prelim CPI m/m0.60%2.50%
28-AprSpanish Flash CPI y/y9.10%9.80%
28-AprSpanish Unemployment Rate12.90%13.30%
28-AprECB Economic Bulletin  
29-AprFrench Consumer Spending m/m-0.10%0.80%
29-AprFrench Flash GDP q/q0.30%0.70%
29-AprGerman Import Prices m/m3.20%1.30%
29-AprFrench Prelim CPI m/m0.30%1.40%
29-AprSpanish Flash GDP q/q0.60%2.20%
29-AprM3 Money Supply y/y6.20%6.30%
29-AprItalian Prelim GDP q/q-0.30%0.60%
29-AprGerman Prelim GDP q/q0.20%-0.30%
29-AprPrivate Loans y/y4.50%4.40%
29-AprCPI Flash Estimate y/y7.50%7.40%
29-AprCore CPI Flash Estimate y/y3.10%2.90%
29-AprItalian Prelim CPI m/m0.60%1.00%
29-AprPrelim Flash GDP q/q0.30%0.30%

United Kingdom

Friday’s disappointing UK Retail Sales and S&P Global Services PMI accentuated the BOE’s dilemma, knocking the pound below 1.2900, its lowest level since November 2020. UK Retail Sales dropped -1.4% over the month in March vs. -0.3% expected and -0.5% previous. Meanwhile, the Preliminary UK Services Business Activity Index for April slipped to 58.3 versus March’s 62.6 and 60.0 expected.

There is nothing significant, in terms of top-tier economic releases from the U.K. this week. But the effect of the U.S. releases should be closely followed.

U.K.’s Major in The Week Ahead:

DateEventForecastPrevious
25-AprRightmove HPI m/m 1.70%
25-AprCBI Industrial Order Expectations2426
26-AprPublic Sector Net Borrowing14.2B12.3B
27-AprCBI Realized Sales129
29-AprNationwide HPI m/m0.80%1.10%

Elsewhere:

DateCurrencyEventForecastPrevious
25-AprCADBOC Gov Macklem Speaks  
27-AprAUDCPI q/q1.70%1.30%
28-AprJPYBOJ Outlook Report  
28-AprJPYMonetary Policy Statement  
28-AprJPYBOJ Press Conference  
29-AprCHFSNB Chairman Jordan Speaks  
29-AprCADGDP m/m 0.20%

Crude oil

This past week, governments and market participants were trying to figure out the real effect of China’s zero-Covid policy and its extended lockdown of Shanghai. Global oil benchmark Brent and West Texas Intermediate, settled on Friday, logging a third weekly loss in four weeks, reacting to the Covid clampdown on Shanghai, as well as the prospect of weaker global growth and higher interest rates.

According to official government data released this week, China’s economy grew 4.8% year on year in January-March. But the IMF downgraded its growth forecasts for China in 2022.

As a result of the Shanghai lockdown, diesel and aviation fuel in April is expected to drop by 20% from a year earlier. That would be equivalent to a drop in crude oil consumption of 1.2 million barrels a day and will be the largest hit to demand since the lockdown more than two years ago.