Web Trader MT5 
Key Takeaways
- Gold to challenge recent top on rate cut expectations.
- U.S. Dollar slips as shutdown ends and traders await fresh data catalysts.
- Oil rises on new Russia sanctions but oversupply risks loom.
Fundamental Outlooks
Gold recovers in hope of another Fed rate cut
Gold climbed to a two-week high as investors grew more confident that signs of a weakening U.S. economy could push the Federal Reserve to cut interest rates next month. The optimism for easier monetary policy outweighed the end of the government shutdown. Recent data highlighted economic fragility, with job losses concentrated in the government and retail sectors and a rise in announced layoffs linked to cost-cutting and increased adoption of artificial intelligence. Consumer sentiment also fell to its lowest level in three and a half years amid concerns about the prolonged shutdown’s economic impact.
Even though the Fed has been downplaying the chances of it happening, markets now see a heightened probability of a rate cut in December, according to the CME FedWatch Tool, a prospect that has lifted demand for the non-yielding metal, which tends to benefit during periods of lower rates and economic uncertainty.
U.S. dollar drops for lack of solid data support
The U.S. dollar weakened as risk appetite improved following the end of the 43-day federal government shutdown, which had stalled key economic functions and delayed crucial data releases. The greenback’s earlier rebound, driven by waning expectations of further interest rate cuts, began to fade as traders awaited fresh data to gauge the health of the economy and future Fed action. With inflation still elevated, officials remain divided on the path forward. San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly said the balance of risks now appears even after two rate cuts this year, though labor-market risks remain slightly higher.
The dollar index slipped with notable weakness against the yen, pulling back from a nine-month high after Japanese officials reiterated concern over rapid yen weakness. Finance Minister Satsuki Katayama issued a new warning on currency volatility as the yen touched its lowest level against the euro since the single currency’s inception in 1999. Although markets see only a 22% chance of a rate hike from the Bank of Japan in December, persistent yen weakness could pressure policymakers to act sooner.
Oil struggles with deeper oversupply concerns
WTI crude bounced back as fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian producers tightened fuel supplies and optimism grew that the U.S. government shutdown could soon end, though concerns about global oversupply kept gains in check. The sanctions have disrupted Russian oil and fuel exports, with Lukoil declaring force majeure at an Iraqi oilfield, a significant fallout. The market consensus is that the curbs are supporting crude and refined product prices despite an overall glut, as refiners in Asia, particularly in India, turn to Middle Eastern suppliers for replacements.
Sentiment was further buoyed by expectations that the U.S. government could reopen soon, which would help restore confidence in demand. However, the upside remained limited as traders weighed the impact of rising OPEC+ production. The group has lifted output by 2 million barrels per day since April and plans to increase targets again in December, though it has signaled a pause in the first quarter of next year. Continued expansion could worsen oversupply in 2025, keeping a lid on price momentum despite near-term geopolitical and policy-driven support.
Key Data of the Week
- The UK’s unemployment rate has risen to 5% in the three months to September, showing signs the jobs market has weakened.
- The UK’s real GDP increased by a mere 0.1% in the three months to September, down from 0.3% in Quarter 2.
- Australia’s unemployment rate fell to 4.3% in October, down from 4.5% in September.
Key Upcoming Events
| Date | Metric |
| Monday, Nov 17 | Canada CPI |
| Tuesday, Nov 18 | RBA Meeting Minutes |
| Wednesday, Nov 19 | UK Inflation Rate |
| EU CPI | |
| FOMC Minutes | |
| Thursday, Nov 20 | U.S. Initial Jobless Claims |
| Japan Inflation Rate | |
| Friday, Nov 21 | UK Retail Sales |
| Canada Retail Sales |
Technical Forecast
XAGUSD
Silver regains strength from its steady recovery over the 50-day SMA near 46.00, advancing back toward the historic peak of 54.40. A clean move above this ceiling would signal a resumption of the broader uptrend, attracting more momentum buying and opening the door to new record highs with potential targets near 56.50 and 59.00. A persistent lack of sustained selling, more than mere profit-taking, would confirm that the long-term bullish structure is still valid.
On a cautious note, if new highs fail to show up, the recent strength would suggest that a corrective phase could be underway in the coming weeks following a tremendous rally this year. On the downside, short-term support lies between said SMA (48.80) and the psychological level of 50.00. Further down, invalidation of 46.00 may trigger a deeper pullback.
XAGUSD Daily Chart XAGUSD
| Support | 50.00 | 46.00 | 41.00 |
| Resistance | 54.40 | 56.50 | 59.00 |
EURUSD
EUR/USD continues to trade under a descending trendline that has persisted since mid-September’s 1.1910 top. The pair is currently pulling back to let the bulls catch some breath after a 8-month long rally. The latest bounce off 1.1475 has been timid and may be capped by the first resistance level at 1.1670 which is also on the trendline and the 50-day SMA. A clean cut above this important hurdle would expose the last meaningful supply zone near 1.1810, with further upside at the peak of 1.1910.
A failure to break out would mean that the path of least resistance is down, keeping the broader retracement intact. Initial support lies at 1.1470, while a deeper move would test the July swing low and round number of 1.1400 which is a critical floor to prevent further losses.
EURUSD Daily Chart EUR/USD
| Support | 1.1470 | 1.1400 | 1.1230 |
| Resistance | 1.1670 | 1.1810 | 1.1910 |
WTI
After peaking at 76.00 in June, the price has been losing steam with a series of lower highs and lower lows, eventually finding support at May’s lows around 56.00. Since then, the price has tried to stabilize at the newly formed double bottom. Buyers may test resistance around 62.50 as they attempt to break out of the descending channel from September 2023.
A convincing close above the major hurdle of 66.00 could open the door for gains toward the psychological level of 70.00 which coincides with the upper band of the channel, with a further move higher likely targeting 78.00. However, failure to reclaim said resistance may lead to a retest of 56.00. A triple bottom would be the bulls’ last stand as a bearish breakout would invalidate the current rebound setup and switch focus back to the 50.00.
WTI Daily Chart WTI
| Support | 56.00 | 50.00 | 48.00 |
| Resistance | 66.00 | 70.00 | 78.00 |
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