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Gold edged lower to $4,964 on Monday after gaining more than 2% on Friday. Softer U.S. inflation data supported the metal, as January CPI slowed to 2.4% on a yearly basis and 0.2% on a monthly basis, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve could cut rates later this year.
At the same time, a stabilizing U.S. labor market, with stronger nonfarm payrolls and a lower unemployment rate, supports expectations that the Fed will hold rates steady in March before potentially delivering two rate cuts by year-end.
Markets are also monitoring renewed U.S.-Iran talks and U.S.-led efforts to end the Ukraine war, as any setbacks could boost safe haven demand. Ongoing geopolitical tensions, strong central bank buying, and investor shifts away from bonds and currencies continue to underpin gold prices.
EURUSD starts the week slightly lower near 1.1860 in quiet trading, with U.S. markets closed for Presidents’ Day and China shut for Lunar New Year.
The pair’s downside may be limited as the U.S. dollar softens following weaker January inflation data. Meanwhile, the euro is supported by signals that the European Central Bank is comfortable with the current inflation outlook, with President Christine Lagarde stating inflation is in a good place and cautioning against overreacting to short-term data.
USDJPY rebounded above 153.00 on Monday after Japan’s weaker-than-expected Q4 GDP report. Japan’s economy grew 0.1% in Q4, recovering from a 0.7% contraction but missing forecasts, which reduced expectations of an immediate Bank of Japan rate hike and pressured the yen.
Improved risk sentiment also weighed on the Yen, while hopes that Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi may introduce further stimulus added to the move. However, expectations that the BoJ will continue gradual policy normalization could support the yen longer term.
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