Web Trader MT5 
Key Factors
- Gold Demand
- Weak data boosts rate-cut bets, supporting renewed demand.
- Uptrend intact as inflation risks and de-dollarisation underpin flows.
- ECB Patience
- ECB signals steady rates, requiring compelling evidence to shift.
- Growth steady but fragile, and geopolitical risks keep outlook cautious.
- Equities and Fed Easing
- Tech-led rebound continues as markets price December rate cut.
- Fed leadership uncertainty adds volatility risks in coming month.
- Oil Supply Gut
- Peace talks shape sanctions outlook, influencing Russian supply flows.
- Oversupply concerns persist as forecasts show widening 2026 surplus.
Gold
Fundamental Outlook
Gold regained upward momentum as the first batch of delayed U.S. economic data signaled a softer macro backdrop, reinforcing anticipation that the Federal Reserve could resume easing as soon as December. The weaker-than-expected retail sales figure, alongside collapsing consumer confidence and early indications of private-sector job losses point to a break in economic momentum. With the data drought caused by the shutdown only now beginning to clear, markets are using each release to assess the damage from the blackout.
This strengthens the narrative that restrictive policy may be biting harder than the central bank thought. Market pricing now leans toward at least one more rate cut, even as policymakers send mixed signals about how quickly they should proceed. That divergence is likely to define bullion’s trajectory into the year’s end. If upcoming jobs and inflation releases confirm slowing demand and moderating price pressures, the metal could benefit from another wave of repricing toward a deeper easing cycle.
As liquidity conditions gradually tighten, the risk would be investors oscillating between embracing the cut narrative and reassessing whether policymakers will wait for more signals, which could cement or reshape gold’s appeal as a non-yielding defensive asset.
Technical Forecast
Gold shows consolidation above the 50-day SMA which is an important level for trend-followers. Near-term gains could remain limited as bulls catch their breath after another parabolic rise from the end of August. Upside momentum is still lacking, with the RSI dropping back sharply into neutral territory. Potential sellers must beware that it would be too soon to call a bearish reversal as sentiment is still overwhelmingly positive. The historic peak of $4379 is the main hurdle and its breach would send the metal toward $4500.
The 50-day SMA coincides with the landmark $4000, making it a critical floor to gauge follow-up interest. A confirmed break below this floor may open the door for a move to $3730 followed by additional support located near $3550.
Euro
Fundamental Outlook
Eurozone policymakers signaled a steady hand heading into year-end, with the ECB showing little urgency to deliver additional easing unless the economic outlook materially diverges from its current path. With eight rate cuts already behind it and growth and inflation broadly aligning with earlier projections, the bank appears comfortable maintaining its stance through December. Governing Council member Makhlouf’s latest remarks support this patient approach: inflation is expected to dip below target next year before rebounding and policymakers may tolerate modest undershooting as long as expectations remain firmly anchored.
Over the coming month, the release of updated economic projections extending for the first time to 2028 will shape the debate, but officials are not seeing any dramatic revisions. That suggests the threshold for further easing remains high. Market participants continue to price in some odds of cuts by mid-2026, even though the ECB might go by a meeting-by-meeting approach, ready to adjust only if downside risks crystallize.
Said risks are none other than uncertainty around U.S. tariffs and spillovers from Chinese trade diversion and the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict at Europe’s doorstep. Additional concerns include inflated U.S. equity valuations and deteriorating credit standards. Against this backdrop, the ECB’s upcoming meeting is likely to be defined by caution rather than action.
Technical Forecast
The EURUSD daily chart shows hesitation with mild pullbacks. The pair has dropped below the 50-day SMA as a sign of temporary bearishness. The RSI is also edging lower, indicating a short-term correction. However, as long as the price stays afloat above the July swing low of 1.1400, the broader upward bias remains intact. Those wishing for a bullish continuation should wait for a convincing rally above the supply zone of 1.1700-1.1760. Then renewed momentum could bring 1.1920 and 1.1210 within reach.
On the downside, a close below 1.1400 would weaken the bullish outlook and pave the way for a deeper correction, throwing the single currency off balance. Sellers will likely target 1.1300, followed by 1.1090.
Nasdaq 100
Fundamental Outlook
U.S. equities have extended recovery momentum as expectations for a December rate cut continued to firm. Tech leadership re-emerged with Nvidia, Tesla and Apple driving gains even as competitive pressures nudged Alphabet off recent record highs. The market’s resilience reflects growing confidence that softer September consumption readings, subdued wholesale inflation and easing labor-market signals have tilted the policy balance toward accommodation. With an 80% probability of a December cut now priced in, investors are looking for confirmation that demand is cooling without tipping into contraction.
The last month will be shaped not just by economic signals but by growing uncertainty over the Fed’s future leadership. President Trump’s shortlist to replace Chair Powell: Hassett, Warsh and Waller, features candidates who share a common reputation of prioritizing price stability. Markets are attempting to gauge whether the next chair would lean dovish in response to political pressure or assert independence if inflation fails to stabilize.
Bullish sentiment remains supported by the assumption that cooling data will let the Fed justify easing in December. While leadership uncertainty might add a layer of short-term volatility, if the finalists challenge the accommodative narrative.
Technical Forecast
The Nasdaq 100 is looking to recoup recent losses after it broke the rising trendline from late May. The invalidation of the 50-day SMA along the way has led to some profit-taking. While broader sentiment is still rather bullish, the sudden pullback makes the 100-day SMA a key inflection point. Robust buying and a successful reclaim of the peak at 26270 would help restore bulls’ confidence. Then a bullish extension would open the door to further upside targets at 27000 then 28000.
On the flip side, a rejection could trigger additional volatility and potentially lock the index into a consolidation pattern in the following weeks. Initial support rests at the psychological level of 24000 which sits on the 100-day SMA, making it a crucial floor. A move below it would trigger a correction and expose the next support zones at 22800 and 21700.
Oil
Fundamental Outlook
Oil may remain under water as markets shifted focus from short-term geopolitical risks to the longer-term supply picture, with investors closely tracking progress in Russia-Ukraine peace negotiations. The prospect of a breakthrough would be a major swing factor for crude in the coming month as any credible move toward a settlement could speed up discussions around lifting sanctions on Russian oil, potentially releasing a significant volume of supply back into the market. With global production already exceeding demand, even the hint of additional barrels is enough to cap rebounds.
While U.S. envoys push diplomacy and Kyiv signals conditional support for an emerging peace framework, it remains uncertain whether Moscow will agree to terms. This ambiguity causes geopolitical risk premium to be baked into short-term market movements.
However, the structural outlook remains skewed toward surplus. Forecasts for 2026 point to a looser market and those expectations are already influencing sentiment. Unless demand improves materially, supply glut will likely dominate price direction. One likely counterweight is monetary policy as rising odds of a December Fed cut may support growth expectations and, by extension, oil demand. Yet for now, any demand-driven lift is likely to take a backseat, leaving crude vulnerable to renewed downside if peace talks advance or if producers continue pumping at current rates.
Technical Forecast
Brent crude remains firmly in a downtrend, with the 4H chart continuing to show a sequence of lower highs and lower lows, a textbook bearish structure. The daily chart barely improves the prospect with price action hovering above the crucial demand zone between the psychological level of $60 and the triple bottom around $60.30. A fall below this level will likely trigger a bearish continuation with increased momentum as buyers rush to bail out. Further downside would point to $56 then $50.
The only way for bulls to break the current downward curse is a strong impetus above $70, forcing their opponents to cover their short bets. Then real work would begin to lift offers around $77 before they could hope for a meaningful bounce.
Key Dates
Wednesday, Dec 03
U.S. ISM Services PMI
Friday, Dec 05
Non Farm Payrolls
Canada Unemployment Rate
Tuesday, Dec 09
RBA Interest Rate Decision
Wednesday, Dec 10
U.S. CPI
Fed Interest Rate Decision
BoC Interest Rate Decision
Thursday, Dec 11
SNB Interest Rate Decision
Friday, Dec 12
UK GDP
Monday, Dec 15
Canada CPI
Tuesday, Dec 16
UK Unemployment Rate
Wednesday, Dec 17
EU CPI
Thursday, Dec 18
Australia Unemployment Rate
BoE Interest Rate Decision
ECB Interest Rate Decision
Friday, Dec 19
BoJ Interest Rate Decision
U.S. GDP
Core PCE
Tuesday, Dec 23
RBA Meeting Minutes
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