Haftungsausschluss: CFDs sind komplexe Instrumente und bergen aufgrund der Hebelwirkung ein hohes Risiko, schnell Geld zu verlieren.
Sie sollten sich überlegen, ob Sie die Funktionsweise von CFDs verstehen und ob Sie es sich leisten können, das hohe Risiko einzugehen, Ihr Geld zu verlieren.
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Fed Fund Futures
Fed funds futures are financial contracts that enable traders to speculate on or hedge against the Fed’s benchmark interest rate at a future date. They trade on the CME Group market and are priced off the predicted average fed funds rate for a given month. They are directly connected to rate expectations and, as such, have become one of the most frequently monitored measures for gauging market consensus on Fed policy.
Analysts extract implied probabilities from these contracts; the market is presently pricing in a 70% probability of a cut in September, for instance, and those probabilities change in real time as economic data and Fed communication change.
Example: Before a Fed meeting, a trader betting that the market is underestimating the probability of a rate cut would buy Fed funds futures contracts for the relevant month. If the Fed does reduce rates and futures prices rise to reflect the lower rate, the trader makes a profit.
Central bank watchers, economists, and journalists all use the same contracts to gauge what the market as a whole expects the Fed to do. They are a real-time referendum on expectations of monetary policy.
Fed Put
The Fed Put is the prevailing idea that the Federal Reserve would step in with looser monetary policy; rate reduction, asset purchases, or emergency liquidity measures – whenever financial markets fall badly enough. The name is derived from the option idea of a put, which protects against downside risk.
The idea is that the Fed effectively sets a floor beneath markets, ruling out catastrophic losses, because the central bank will eventually step in to soften the impact.
This view has been confirmed repeatedly after 1987, the dot-com bust, the 2008 crisis, and COVID, when the Fed responded to acute market stress with massive easing. Critics say the Fed Put encourages reckless risk-taking because investors expect to be bailed out. Proponents claim that central bank action in crises is simply smart policy.
Example: Fears of a recession sent equity markets down 20% in six weeks. Trading desk strategists start scribbling down notes on when the Fed Put will kick in, at what level of market stress the Fed would likely shift from its hawkish posture, and on announcing that rate cuts are imminent.
The prospect of that intervention becomes a stabilizing force in itself, with buyers moving in before the Fed has really acted.
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation
The Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation is the US government agency that insures deposits in American banks and savings organizations. The FDIC guarantees that if your bank fails, you will get your money back up to $250,000 per depositor, per bank, and per account ownership type.
It was born in 1933, in the wake of the Great Depression, when bank runs destroyed the savings of millions of ordinary Americans who had done nothing wrong except put their money in the wrong institution. When banks fail, the FDIC pays depositors but also controls thousands of banks and manages the failure process itself, either selling the failed bank to a healthy institution or shutting it down in an orderly manner.
Deposit insurance revolutionized the underlying philosophy of banking. There is no need for consumers to panic and queue outside their bank at the first sign of trouble.
Example: When Silicon Valley Bank failed in March 2023, depositors with balances over the $250,000 insurance limit waited anxiously for days before regulators said they would guarantee all accounts. If you had anything less than that in your account, you were fine.
The FDIC guarantee meant your money was never at risk, which is exactly what the system was supposed to achieve.
Federal Funds Rate
The federal funds rate is the rate at which US banks lend money to each other overnight to meet their reserve requirements. Banks always have short-term excesses and shortages of reserves in their accounts and lend to each other to even things out. The Fed doesn’t set this rate directly; it targets a range and utilizes its tools to keep the actual rate trading within that range.
For most people, that distinction is less than the reality: the federal funds rate is the most important interest rate in the world. It sets borrowing costs for the entire US economy and sends tremors through global markets whenever it changes. Mortgage rates, credit card rates, corporate borrowing costs, and currencies in emerging markets. They all feel it.
Example: The Federal Reserve hiked the federal funds rate from near zero to around 5% between 2022 and 2023, and the impacts were felt everywhere. Mortgage rates doubled for Americans with mortgages. Companies with adjustable-rate debt saw their interest bills spike.
And investors throughout the world moved money into dollar-denominated assets to capture the higher rates, bolstering the currency and pressuring currencies from the euro to the Turkish lira.
Federal Reserve
The Federal Reserve is the central bank of the United States. Since the U.S. Dollar is the world’s reserve currency, the Federal Reserve is the most influential financial institution on the planet.
Congress created it in 1913, following a spate of banking panics that convinced the body that the United States needed a lender of last resort. It now has two objectives, controlling inflation and ensuring maximum employment, and achieves these goals by adjusting the cost of credit, primarily through setting interest rates.
Raising interest rates tightens credit throughout the economy. Lowering interest rates loosens credit. Such decisions by the Fed have an impact well beyond U.S. Borders on bond prices, exchange rates, and the flow of capital around the world.
It is the Fed that intervened massively during the 2008 financial crisis, and again during the COVID-19 pandemic, with a sequence of emergency measures, that changed what people thought a central bank could do.
Example: The Fed raised interest rates so sharply in 2022 that mortgage rates rose in Ohio, and currencies in developing countries holding dollar debt were thrown into crisis, making those debts that much more expensive to repay.
Fiat
Fiat money is money that is accepted because a government decrees it. It does not contain any gold in a vault, and there is no commodity you can assign a fixed value to. All fiat currencies are presented, including the dollar, the euro, the pound, and the yen. The word is from the Latin ‘let it be done,’ referring to the fact that value is announced by authority and not by anything tangible.
The world had made a clear turn to fiat in 1971, when the US took the final step to end the dollar’s convertibility into gold, severing the last link with the Bretton Woods system. Fiat is effective as long as people have confidence in the issuing government and its institutions to maintain control.
When people lose faith in fiat currency, it can lose value at a remarkable rate. This can be due to hyperinflation, political turmoil, monetary mismanagement , etc .
Example: Zimbabwe in the late 2000s, when fiat failed. To pay its debts, the government resorted to printing money, and inflation soared into the billions of percent, so that the paper dollar was worth less than it could print. The Zimbabwean dollar was entirely ditched, and people began to use barter or foreign money instead; a reminder that fiat money is based on trust, and trust can be lost.
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