Web Trader MT5 
Key Takeaways
- U.S. stock indices reached fresh record highs, with the S&P 500 breaking above 7,300 and the Nasdaq continuing its AI-driven rally.
- Gold settled back above the $4,700 level as the U.S. dollar weakened and expectations for aggressive Federal Reserve tightening eased.
- President Donald Trump first launched “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz before later signaling that a U.S.–Iran peace agreement was close, sharply shifting market sentiment throughout the week.
- Asian stock markets surged to record highs, led by Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi.
- Samsung Electronics crossed the $1 trillion market capitalization milestone after a massive rally in semiconductor and AI-related stocks.
- Bitcoin climbed back above the $80,000 level as institutional demand and ETF inflows continued supporting the crypto market.
- Oil markets remained highly volatile as traders reacted to changing headlines surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and U.S.–Iran negotiations.
US Stocks Continue to Advance higher
Economic data was one of the main drivers of market sentiment during the week. The ADP employment report came in stronger than the previous reading at 109K new jobs added in April, but fell short of expectations , showing that the U.S. labor market remains resilient despite slower economic momentum. This reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep interest rates elevated for longer.
Equities continued to rally, while Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar remained under pressure during most of the week. Nasdaq 100 jumped 3.45% to a new record high above 28,800. The S&P 500 gained 1.6% breaking a new high above 7,300. While the Dow Jones traded mixed, finishing the week mostly unchanged.
Asian Stocks Reach Record Highs
Asian markets delivered one of their strongest weekly performances of the year. Japan’s Nikkei 225 surged above the 62,000 level for the first time ever, supported by strong gains in technology, semiconductor, and financial shares. Investor enthusiasm surrounding artificial intelligence and chip demand continued to fuel buying momentum across the region.
South Korea’s Kospi also reached fresh record highs after rallying sharply during the week. Samsung Electronics became one of the biggest highlights globally after its market capitalization surpassed $1 trillion. Shares of SK Hynix and other semiconductor companies also posted massive gains as investors continued rotating into AI-related names.
The strength across Asian equities reflected improving global risk sentiment, easing oil prices later in the week, and continued confidence in the long-term AI growth story.
Gold Settles above $4,700 as the US Dollar Weakens
The U.S. dollar weakened during most of the week as investors reduced expectations for additional aggressive tightening from the Federal Reserve. The softer dollar helped support precious metals, with gold climbing back above the $4,700 level and ending the week with strong gains. Gold initially faced pressure earlier in the month due to rising oil prices and inflation fears, but weaker dollar momentum and fading expectations of further rate hikes helped stabilize the metal.
At the same time, uncertainty surrounding the U.S.–Iran negotiations kept safe-haven demand elevated. Investors remained cautious despite improving diplomatic headlines, especially as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz continued creating uncertainty in global energy markets.
In the broader forex market, risk-sensitive currencies benefited from improving sentiment, while the dollar index continued trading below recent highs.
Oil Prices Ease, But Volatility Remains High
Oil prices experienced major volatility throughout the week. At the beginning of the week, concerns surrounding the Strait of Hormuz and the launch of “Project Freedom” pushed Brent crude and WTI sharply higher. Markets feared a prolonged disruption in global energy flows as military tensions escalated between the United States and Iran.
However, sentiment shifted later in the week after reports emerged suggesting both countries were close to reaching a preliminary peace agreement. This helped oil prices cool from their highs, although traders remained cautious as negotiations were still ongoing.
Despite the pullback, oil remained elevated compared to previous months, trading around the $100 level, which reflects the market’s continued concern over supply risks in the Middle East.
Cryptocurrencies See Positive ETF Net Flows
The cryptocurrency market regained strong bullish momentum this week, led by Bitcoin moving back above the $80,000 level. Institutional demand remained one of the main drivers behind the rally, with spot Bitcoin ETFs continuing to record positive net inflows. Investor sentiment improved alongside the broader rally in risk assets, especially technology stocks and AI-related sectors.
Bitcoin outperformed most major altcoins during the week, reflecting continued preference for large-cap crypto exposure among institutional investors. Ethereum and several major altcoins also moved higher, though gains remained more moderate compared to Bitcoin.
ETF inflows and improving macro sentiment continue to support the broader crypto market outlook heading into next week.
Outlook for Next Week
Markets are entering next week with strong bullish momentum, but several major risks remain unresolved.
Investors will continue monitoring developments surrounding the U.S.–Iran negotiations and the Strait of Hormuz, as any breakdown in diplomacy could quickly reignite volatility in oil and broader financial markets.
Attention will also shift toward upcoming inflation data, Federal Reserve commentary, and additional corporate earnings reports. The resilience of the labor market and the strength of the AI-driven earnings cycle remain key pillars supporting equities.
Meanwhile, gold, the U.S. dollar, and Bitcoin are likely to remain highly sensitive to shifts in Fed expectations and geopolitical headlines.
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Fed Chair Nomination Vote | USA | Tentative | |
| Consumer Price Index y/y | USA | 3.30% | 4:30 PM |
| Producer Price Index m/m | USA | 0.50% | 4:30 PM |
| Gross Domestic Product m/m | UK | 0.50% | 10:00 AM |
| Retail Sales m/m | USA | 1.70% | 4:30 PM |
| Empire State Manufacturing Index | USA | 11 | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Nikkei 225 Technical Analysis
The Nikkei225 remains one of the strongest equity indices, continuing its impressive bullish recovery March low. Since reclaiming the MA20 in early April, the index has been producing consistent higher highs and higher lows while maintaining strong separation above all major moving averages.
Price is currently trading above 62,700 and recently pushed toward 63,340, confirming continuation of the broader uptrend. The MA5 remains firmly above the MA10, while both are comfortably above the rising MA20, reflecting strong bullish momentum. Importantly, pullbacks during the rally have remained shallow, indicating that buyers continue to aggressively absorb selling pressure.
From a technical perspective, the first important support zone sits around 61,500–60,700. As long as price remains above this region, the bullish trend structure remains dominant. Only a sustained break back below the MA20 would suggest weakening momentum. At the moment, the daily chart continues to favor trend continuation and additional upside potential.
Nikkei 225 Daily Chart
| Resistance | 63,082 – 63,100 | 63,240 – 63,250 | 63,290 – 63,300 |
| Support | 60,523 – 60,540 | 59,053 – 59,100 | 57,894 – 57,900 |
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold remains in a broader bullish structure on the daily timeframe despite the extreme volatility seen over the past several weeks.
Currently, price is trading around the $4,710 region and attempting to regain stronger bullish momentum after consolidating for several sessions below the 4,800 resistance zone. The moving averages are beginning to realign positively, with the MA5 crossing above the MA10 while both remain above the rising MA20.
The recent candles also show improving bullish participation, with buyers repeatedly defending pullbacks near the $4,600–$4,650 region. This zone has now become key daily support. As long as gold remains above this area, the recovery structure remains intact and another move toward $4,800 and potentially $5,000 remains possible.
If gold fails to sustain above $4,650, sellers could trigger another correction back toward the MA20 support near $4,500. For now, though, momentum favors gradual upside continuation with bullish sentiment clearly improving again.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $4,766 – $4,780 | $4,870 – $4,900 | $4,930 – $4,945 |
| Support | $4,619 – $4,625 | $4,523 – $4,555 | $4,373 – $4,390 |
Brent Technical Analysis
Oil continues to trade under broader bearish pressure on the daily timeframe after failing to sustain the earlier rally toward $120. The sharp rejection from that region confirmed a major loss of bullish momentum and triggered a strong downside correction. Since then, the market has entered a lower-high structure, with sellers repeatedly defending rebounds and keeping pressure on price.
The inability to hold above $10 is particularly important technically because that level had acted as a key support zone during previous consolidations
If oil continues trading below $110, the market could retest support around $100–$101 and potentially revisit the earlier swing low area if bearish momentum accelerates. On the upside, buyers would need a sustained recovery back above the MA20 and a breakout beyond $112–$114 to shift momentum back in favor of a broader bullish recovery. Until then, the overall daily structure still favors downside pressure.
Brent Daily Chart
| Resistance | $109.55 – $109.70 | $116.76 – $116.95 | $120.32 – $120.50 |
| Support | $102.54 – $102.70 | $99.38 – $99.60 | $93.70 – $93.89 |
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The SP500 continues to show exceptionally strong bullish momentum on the daily timeframe. The index is now trading around 7,370 after recently testing the 7,393 resistance region. The moving averages are fully aligned in bullish formation, with MA5 above MA10 and both significantly above the rising MA20. This type of alignment typically reflects institutional trend strength and often appears during sustained trending environments.
One of the strongest bullish signals on this chart is the consistency of the buying pressure. Pullbacks remain extremely shallow, while bullish candles continue to dominate the structure. The breakout above the previous consolidation range around 7,000–7,100 confirmed continuation of the larger bullish trend and opened the door for further upside expansion.
The 7,300–7,250 region now acts as critical support and aligns with both short-term moving averages. As long as price remains above this area, the bullish structure remains intact and the market may continue pushing toward new highs beyond 7,400. Momentum currently favors continuation rather than reversal, although short-term consolidation after such a strong rally would still be technically healthy.
Overall, the SP500 remains firmly bullish on the daily timeframe with no major reversal signals currently visible.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
| Resistance | 7,385 – 7,400 | 7,425 – 7,430 | 7,485 – 7,500 |
| Support | 7,218 – 7,225 | 7,095 – 7,100 | 6,988 – 7,000 |
Risk Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or investment advice. Trading financial instruments on margin involves substantial risk and may not be appropriate for all investors.
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