Web Trader MT5 
Key Takeaways
- US equities recovered toward the end of the week, supported by strong Nvidia earnings and renewed optimism around AI spending.
- Gold approached $4,700 before pulling back, as a weaker dollar and lower yields initially supported the precious metal.
- Silver and copper remained supported by strong demand, with both metals benefiting from industrial and structural trends.
- Bitcoin broke above $80,000, extending its recent rally as institutional ETF inflows, lower Treasury yields and renewed demand for scarce assets boosted sentiment.
- US PCE inflation remained sticky, with headline inflation at 3.7% and core inflation at 3.3% year-on-year. The data reinforced expectations that the Fed may keep monetary policy restrictive.
- Next week’s focus shifts to the US labor market, with Nonfarm Payrolls and unemployment data likely to play a major role in determining the Fed’s next move.
US Indices Recover, Supported by the AI Narrative
US equities recovered strongly toward the end of the week after coming under pressure earlier, particularly in technology stocks. The Nasdaq led the gains after Nvidia delivered stronger-than-expected earnings and an upbeat revenue outlook.
Nvidia became the week’s main catalyst for equities. The company beat expectations and forecast strong revenue growth, sending its shares sharply higher and reviving confidence in the broader AI trade. Nvidia’s gains helped lift the Nasdaq and S&P 500, although the rally remained relatively concentrated in technology stocks.
Bond yields also remained an important driver. The Treasury’s intervention through increased long-duration bond buybacks helped pull yields lower, providing relief to equities. However, persistent inflation and uncertainty over Fed policy kept long-term yields elevated and limited the upside for stocks.
Gold, Silver and Copper Showed Bullish Momentum
Gold had another strong run, climbing to a 15-week high of around $4,697 earlier in the week before correcting toward the $4,580–$4,600 area. The rally was initially supported by a weaker US dollar, lower Treasury yields and the Treasury’s expanded bond buyback program.
However, hot PCE inflation data and renewed expectations for a Fed rate hike put pressure on gold later in the week. The market is now pricing roughly a 40% probability of a September rate hike, up from around 36% before the PCE release.
Silver also remained strong but experienced some profit taking. The metal traded around was around $68–70 during the week.
Copper continued to benefit from strong structural demand and the AI/electrification theme. Prices reached around $6.61/lb, close to record levels.
Bitcoin breaks above $80,000
Bitcoin was one of the week’s strongest performers, breaking above the psychologically important $80,000 level and briefly reaching above $81,000. The cryptocurrency was up roughly 9% on the week as institutional demand and improving risk appetite supported the rally.
Several factors supported the move. The Treasury’s bond-buyback program pushed long-term yields lower and contributed to a weaker dollar and debasement narrative, encouraging investors to seek scarce assets such as Bitcoin and gold. Strong institutional demand also returned through US spot Bitcoin ETFs, while the earlier rally was amplified by a major short squeeze that liquidated billions of dollars of bearish positions.
Bitcoin subsequently pulled back below $80,000 as investors took profits and the hotter PCE report revived concerns about Fed tightening.
Outlook for next week: 31 August – 4 September
The focus will shift from inflation to the US labor market, making next week potentially even more important for Fed expectations. The August Nonfarm Payrolls report is due on Friday, September 4, alongside unemployment and wage data.
The key question is whether the labor market is strong enough to justify a Fed hike despite elevated inflation. Stronger than expected jobs and wage growth would reinforce the hawkish case, potentially pushing the dollar and Treasury yields higher while weighing on gold and risk assets. Conversely, a weak employment report could revive expectations for a more accommodative Fed, supporting gold, equities and Bitcoin.
The week will also bring the US ISM Manufacturing PMI, followed by the ISM Services PMI, providing additional insight into economic momentum. The manufacturing report is scheduled for the first business day of the month, while services follows on the third business day.
For gold, the $4,700 area remains the major resistance after this week’s failed attempt to sustain the breakout. A dovish interpretation of the Fed outlook could put $4,700 back in focus, while a hawkish shift could deepen the correction toward the $4,500–$4,520 area.
For Bitcoin, $80,000 is now the key psychological level. Holding above it would strengthen the bullish breakout and potentially open the door toward the $82,850–$85,000 region, while another rejection could send BTC back toward the mid-$70,000s.
Overall, next week’s US jobs data will likely determine whether the recent rallies in gold, Bitcoin and equities can continue or whether markets enter a deeper correction. The combination of sticky inflation, elevated bond yields and an uncertain Fed policy path means volatility is likely to remain elevated.
Major Economic Calendar Events for the Upcoming Week
| Date | Metric | Country | Previous | Time [Dubai] |
| Tuesday, 1 September | Consumer Price Index y/y | Euro | 2.9% | 1:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 1 September | ISM Manufacturing PMI | USA | 55.6 | 6:00 PM |
| Tuesday, 1 September | JOLTS Job Openings | USA | 7.359M | 6:00 PM |
| Wednesday, 2 September | Gross Domestic Product q/q | Australia | 0.3% | 5:30 AM |
| Wednesday, 2 September | Interest Rate Decision | New Zealand | 2.50% | 6:00 AM |
| Wednesday, 2 September | ADP Nonfarm Employment Change | USA | 44K | 4:15 PM |
| Wednesday, 2 September | Interest Rate Decision | Canada | 2.25% | 5:45 PM |
| Thursday, 3 September | Unemployment Claims | USA | 4:30 PM | |
| Thursday, 3 September | ISM Services PMI | USA | 54.1 | 6:00 PM |
| Friday, 4 September | Non-Farm Payrolls | USA | -23K | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 4 September | Unemployment Rate | USA | 4.1% | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 4 September | Average Hourly Earnings m/m | USA | 0.1% | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 4 September | Employment Change | Canada | 75.1K | 4:30 PM |
| Friday, 4 September | Unemployment Rate | Canada | 6.4% | 4:30 PM |
Technical Analysis and Forecast:
Gold Technical Analysis
Gold remains in a strong bullish medium term trend, although the market is currently consolidating below its recent high of $4,696. The precious metal is trading around $4,609, well above its 10-day and 20-day moving averages. The 5-day MA at $4,623 is slightly above the current price, reflecting the recent loss of short term momentum. Immediate resistance is at $4,696, while support can be found around $4,543, followed by $4,418 and the previous breakout area near $4,097. A sustained break above $4,697 would reinforce the bullish trend and potentially open the door to new highs, while a break below $4,543 could trigger a deeper short-term correction.
Gold Daily Chart
| Resistance | $4,695 – $4.700 | $4,774 – $4,790 | $4,862 – $4,870 |
| Support | $4,440 – $4,450 | $4,389 – $4,400 | $4,350 – $4,365 |
S&P 500 Technical Analysis
The S&P 500 maintains a bullish overall trend, despite some consolidation following its recent record high at 7,825. The index is currently trading around 7,733, above its 20-day moving average at 7,722, while the 5- and 10-day averages remain close to current levels, suggesting that momentum has stabilized after the recent pullback. The first important resistance is around 7,825, and a breakout above this level would signal a continuation of the broader uptrend. On the downside, 7,705–7,723 forms an important support zone, followed by 7,531. As long as the index holds above the 20-day MA, the technical structure remains constructive, although a break below 7,723 could lead to a deeper correction.
S&P 500 Daily Chart
| Resistance | 7,792 – 7,800 | 7,820 – 7,835 | 7,885 – 7,900 |
| Support | 7,645 – 7,650 | 7,555 – 7,560 | 7,349 – 7,360 |
Brent Technical Analysis
Crude brent has a neutral medium term outlook, although the recent price action shows signs of consolidation. The 5-day moving average and 10-day moving average indicate that short term momentum has weakened. Immediate resistance is around $92.17, followed by $95.08, while support is located at $88.58 and then around $78.99. A sustained break above $92.17 could reopen the path toward $95.08, while a move below $88.58 would strengthen the corrective bearish scenario.
Brent Daily Chart
| Resistance | $92.17 – $92.25 | $94.60 -$94.72 | $95.08 – $95.20 |
| Support | $88.40 – $88.58 | $86.24 – $86.40 | $84.11 – $84.24 |
EURUSD Technical Analysis
EURUSD retains a bullish medium-term structure, but the pair is currently experiencing a modest pullback after reaching a recent high of 1.1710. Price is trading around 1.1644, close to the 5- and 10-day moving averages, while remaining comfortably above the 20-day moving average. This suggests that the broader upward trend remains intact despite the recent loss of momentum. Immediate resistance is located around 1.1650–1.1660, followed by the recent high at 1.1710. On the downside, 1.1591 is the key support level, with 1.1520 providing the next major support. Holding above 1.1591 would keep the bullish structure intact, while a break below it could signal a deeper correction toward 1.1520.
EURUSD Daily Chart
| Resistance | 1.1680 – 1.1685 | 1.1756 – 1.1770 | 1.1800 – 1.1820 |
| Support | 1.1614 – 1.1620 | 1.1580 – 1.1585 | 1.1513 – 1.1520 |
Risk Disclaimer: This material is provided for informational purposes only and does not constitute a recommendation or investment advice. Trading financial instruments on margin involves substantial risk and may not be appropriate for all investors.
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