风险声明：差价合约（CFD）是属于复杂的投资产品，因杠杆而存在快速亏损的高度风险。
交易前您应衡量是否了解差价合约以及是否能够承担发生亏损的高风险。
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Balance Sheet Recession
Richard Koo’s term, and the most useful single concept for understanding Japan after 1990. A balance sheet recession happens when the private sector; households and corporations; collectively stops borrowing and starts paying down debt, even when interest rates are at zero. The problem isn’t the cost of money. It’s that everyone’s balance sheet is wrecked, and nobody wants more debt at any price.
Conventional monetary policy fails here. The central bank can cut rates to nothing, and credit demand still doesn’t respond. Koo’s argument was that fiscal policy has to fill the gap; government has to spend the savings the private sector won’t invest, or you get a deflationary spiral.
The framework explains a lot. Why QE in Japan didn’t produce inflation for two decades. Why the eurozone recovery after 2010 was so painfully slow. Why China’s post-2021 property correction is taking the shape it is.
Example: Japanese corporations spent the 1990s and 2000s repaying debt taken on during the bubble. Even as the Bank of Japan cut rates to zero and beyond, corporate borrowing stayed flat or shrank. Only sustained fiscal deficits prevented an outright depression; and the country was still in deflation 25 years later.
Baltic Dry Index (BDI)
A daily price benchmark for shipping dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grain, cement) across major sea routes. Published by the Baltic Exchange in London, the index averages rates across vessel classes (Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, Handysize), each handling different cargo sizes and routes.
The BDI is one of the more honest indicators in finance. Shipping demand is a leading indicator of industrial activity, because raw materials get shipped before they get smelted, refined, or built into things. And shipping rates are set by physical supply and demand for vessels; there’s no central bank manipulating them, no buyback programme propping up the index. When freight rates move, something real is moving.
It’s also volatile. Vessel supply is slow to adjust (ships take years to build, years to scrap), so demand shocks translate into massive price swings. A BDI move of 30% in a month is unremarkable.
Example: The BDI peaked above 11,000 in May 2008, the month commodity demand from China was at its frothiest. By December, after Lehman, it had crashed to 663. A 94% drop in seven months. No other major financial index moved like that. The index was screaming “trade has stopped” weeks before the macro data caught up.
Bangladeshi Taka (BDT)
The currency of Bangladesh, issued by Bangladesh Bank. The Taka splits into 100 poisha, but poisha coins have effectively died from inflation; you’ll never see one in circulation today. Notes run from 2 Taka to 1,000 Taka.
The exchange-rate regime is technically a managed float. In practice, Bangladesh Bank intervenes whenever the Taka starts moving in a direction it doesn’t like, which is most of the time. The currency tracks the US dollar within a managed band, with the band itself sliding as needed.
Two flows define the Taka’s value. First, garment exports; Bangladesh is the world’s second-largest apparel exporter after China, and dollar receipts from Western buyers fund most of the country’s import bill. Second, remittances from Bangladeshis working in the Gulf, Malaysia, and Singapore, which run into the tens of billions annually. When either leg weakens, the Taka comes under pressure fast.
Example: Through 2022 and 2023, the Taka depreciated from about 85 per USD to over 110, as global commodity prices spiked Bangladesh’s import bill while remittance growth slowed. Bangladesh Bank burned through reserves trying to slow the slide before eventually allowing the rate to reset.
Bank for International Settlements
The BIS is the central bank for central banks. That’s not a slogan; it’s literally what it does. Set up in 1930, headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, and fundamentally uninterested in dealing with you, me, or any commercial entity. Its clients are the Federal Reserves and ECBs of the world.
Three things it actually does:
First, it provides a meeting ground. Central bankers fly to Basel six times a year for the Global Economy Meeting, where they coordinate without making it official policy.
Second, it hosts the Basel Committee, which writes the global rulebook for how banks must hold capital; Basel I, II, III, and the in-progress IV. If your retail bank’s capital ratios feel arbitrary, blame Basel.
Third, it publishes statistics. The BIS quarterly reports on cross-border banking flows are some of the most useful data in international finance, and almost nobody reads them.
Example: During the 2008 crisis, the BIS quietly facilitated coordination among central banks deploying dollar swap lines. The headlines went to the Fed; the plumbing happened in Basel.
Bank Levy
A targeted tax on banks, usually charged as a small percentage of certain liabilities on the balance sheet. Most countries that adopted bank levies did so after 2008, with two stated goals: claw back some of the bailout cost from the sector that created it, and discourage banks from funding themselves with risky short-term wholesale debt rather than stable retail deposits.
The design varies. The UK levy, introduced in 2011, hit large banks’ global balance sheets at first, with insured deposits and long-term debt excluded to nudge banks toward safer funding mixes. France, Germany, and several others adopted similar regimes with their own quirks.
The economic-incidence question (who actually pays) is unsettled. Banks argue the cost gets passed to customers and shareholders. Treasuries argue the rates are set low enough that banks absorb it. Both are partly right.
Example: HSBC and Standard Chartered both threatened to relocate their headquarters out of London during the early years of the UK bank levy, because the global-balance-sheet design hit them hardest. The UK government eventually narrowed the levy to UK operations and added a separate surcharge on profits, defusing the relocation threat.
Bank of Canada (BoC)
Canada’s central bank. Founded in 1934, headquartered in Ottawa, currently inflation-targeting at 2% with a tolerance range of 1% to 3%. The Governing Council, led by the Governor, decides interest rates eight times a year on a published schedule.
Compared to its peers, the BoC tends to move first and explain second. It was one of the earliest major central banks to start hiking in the 2022 cycle and one of the earliest to start cutting in 2024. It’s also unusually transparent about its forecasts; the quarterly Monetary Policy Report includes detailed projections most central banks would never put their names to.
The other thing worth knowing: the Canadian economy is housing-heavy and household-debt-heavy. So Canadian rate decisions transmit to the broader economy faster and more painfully than US ones, because most Canadian mortgages reset every five years rather than locking in for thirty.
Example: The BoC raised its policy rate from 0.25% to 5.00% between March 2022 and July 2023, then started cutting in June 2024. Canadian households felt the squeeze acutely as five-year mortgages came up for renewal at materially higher rates.
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