Zastrzeżenie: Kontrakty CFD są złożonymi instrumentami i wiążą się z wysokim ryzykiem szybkiej utraty pieniędzy z powodu dźwigni.
Powinieneś rozważyć, czy rozumiesz, jak działają kontrakty CFD i czy możesz sobie pozwolić na wysokie ryzyko utraty pieniędzy.
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Currency Devaluation
The lowering of the official exchange rate of a currency intentionally by the central bank or government. Devaluation is used only in a fixed or managed exchange rate system, whereas a freely floating currency will depreciate due to market forces. Devaluation is not a market result, but rather a policy choice.
When there are no other adjustment mechanisms, governments devalue to restore competitiveness, reduce the real burden of domestic debt, or correct a current account deficit.
There are high expenses. Domestic inflation is driven by rising import prices. Savings in local currency lose real value overnight. Should confidence fall, capital flows may reverse the adjustment process, necessitating a revaluation. A devaluation, without redressing the underlying fiscal issues, is likely to be a temporary solution.
Example: A country which has been pegging at a level above fundamental value makes a formal devaluation. As competitiveness increases, export orders bounce back. But import prices begin to increase, inflation rate increases and foreign investors wonder if a second devaluation may follow, which adds further competitive premiums to local-currency assets as the first premium materialises.
Currency Exchange Controls
Regulations of foreign currency purchases, sales, or transfers by the government. Although the controls have not been enforced to date, they might include limiting the amount of currency that residents can convert, requiring government permission for any foreign exchange transactions, requiring non-residents to surrender their export earnings to the central bank, or preventing non-residents from conducting business in local currency.
Exchange controls are implemented by countries to protect their official exchange rates, prevent capital flight during crises, conserve foreign currency reserves, and control cross-border capital flows. The most typical users of controls are emerging markets, which use them to protect themselves from the volatile flow of capital that can overwhelm a small central bank’s ability to defend its currency.
The costs are real. Controls establish parallel black markets that offer unofficial rates different from those listed. They can lead to misallocation of investment, limit corporate hedging, and generally are accompanied by a decrease in foreign investment and long-term financial development.
Example: When a country is running out of reserves, it starts putting in place emergency exchange controls, which restrict the availability of foreign currency for corporate investment purchases based on actual import needs. The parent company is notified that approvals for the repatriation of profits to a subsidiary by a multinational firm will take months, and until then, the subsidiary will have to be funded on its own. The delay reveals the actual costs of any controlled-currency operation in hard numbers.
Currency Exposure
The impact that the rise or fall of the exchange rate has on an individual, company, or portfolio. Whether recognized or not, any entity can have currency exposure because it holds assets, liabilities, revenues, or costs in a currency other than its functional currency.
Generally, three types are distinguished. Transaction exposure refers to cash flows in a foreign currency that are expected to occur in the future. Translation exposure occurs when foreign subsidiaries’ results are translated into the parent company’s reporting currency, in which case profits may increase or decrease solely due to exchange-rate fluctuations, without any changes in business. Economic exposure is the most general: the impact of exchange-rate changes on a firm’s long-run competitive position vis-à-vis foreign competition.
Currency identification, measurement, and management are fundamental to the corporate treasury and institutional risk management process.
Example: The export revenue of a UK manufacturer is in dollars, while wages and costs are in pounds. If sterling appreciates against the dollar, the dollar revenues cost more in pounds, which negatively affects margins without any volume or price change. The firm’s profitability is partly an FX trade, whether or not it’s explicitly recognized by management.
Currency Forward
A contract that sets a rate for a currency transaction that will occur at a predetermined future time. Forwards are not settled like spot trades (which settle in two business days) but rather on any date in the future agreed upon, usually from one week to several years.
The forward rate is NOT a prediction of the future spot rate. It is a mechanically derived variable from the current spot rate, based on the interest-rate differential between the two currencies, caused by covered interest-rate parity. The currency of the higher interest rate has a forward discount; the currency of the lower interest rate has a forward premium.
Forwards are most commonly employed by corporations and investors who are taking on certain, known currency cash flows. Unlike exchange-traded standardised currency futures, they are over-the-counter (OTC) contracts, tailor-made to some specific amount and some settlement date.
Example: A European firm that anticipates receiving USD in three months signs a contract that is a forward sale of USD and a purchase of euros at the agreed price today. No matter where EUR/USD settles during those three months, conversion will happen at the fixed rate, which removes uncertainty regarding the exchange rate from the cash flow and gives up any potential better rate changes that may follow.
Currency Hedging
The use of financial instruments to limit or mitigate the adverse effects on the value of an exposure that may arise from the movement of exchange rates. The objective of hedging isn’t to take advantage of price fluctuations in foreign currencies; it’s to eliminate the uncertainty that could affect the results of the company’s or investor’s primary business.
Frequent instruments are currency forwards, options, futures and cross-currency swaps. You have two options with differing trade-offs: forwards remove all uncertainty, but also lose any upside, while options retain upside but limit the downside at the expense of premium.
Hedging is an actual expense. Options come with an up-front premium, while forward rates include the interest-rate differential. A judgment on hedge ratio, instrument selection, and tenor is based on the predictability of cash flow and management risk tolerance.
Example: A Japanese pension fund with exposure in the US equities market hedges its dollar exposure with rolling short-dated currency forwards. With a strengthening yen, the value of equities in a portfolio declines in yen terms, but the forward gains offset the translation loss, which means that the yen value of the portfolio does not decline with a stronger yen regardless of the movement of the bilateral exchange rate over the holding period of the portfolio.
Currency Manipulation
The deliberate effort to keep the exchange rate lower than it naturally would be, making exports cheaper and imports more expensive. It is a term that carries a political connotation and is subject to debate: one nation’s manipulation is another’s legitimate exchange-rate management.
A semi-annual report on currencies in the US Treasury lists the countries that fit the profile of countries with a large bilateral trade surplus with the US, a large current account surplus, and repeated one-sided FX intervention as countries that are suspected of being manipulated. Countries on the list of countries under monitoring are subjected to diplomatic pressure and trade measures.
There is a real grey area between legitimate monetary policy (impact on exchange rates is a side effect) and intentional monetary manipulation. Central banks can boost their economies by lowering rates, but this will also lead to a more devalued currency. Whether it is a manipulation or not depends partly on the interests of those involved in the trade.
Example: A large exporting country regularly purchases foreign currency in order to keep its currency from rising in value, thus keeping its exports competitive on the world market. There is a formal grievance by trading partners. The accused country claims its actions don’t hit a specific rate level but instead prevent excessive volatility; the definitional issue that’s central to all allegations of currency manipulation.
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