Disclaimer: CFD’s zijn complexe instrumenten en hebben een hoog risico van snel verliezen van geld als gevolg van hefboomwerking.
U moet overwegen of u begrijpt hoe CFD’s werken en of u het zich kunt veroorloven om het hoge risico te nemen om uw geld te verliezen.
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Fibonacci Channel
A Fibonacci channel uses Fibonacci ratios to a price channel instead of one swing, creating a sequence of parallel trend lines above and below the core trend, spaced by Fibonacci intervals. The channel is establishing a primary trendline between two major price points (e.g., two lows), anchoring a second parallel line to an opposing extreme (e.g., a high) to define the initial channel width, and then projecting extensions outward at 38.2%, 61.8%, 100%, 138.2%, and 161.8% of that width.
These lines serve as dynamic support and resistance that shift with the trend, providing traders with a framework for where price might extend or pull back within an established directional move. It is especially helpful in strong-moving markets when horizontal levels are less important, as the price is always making new highs or lows.
Example: A commodity has been rising for months within a well-defined channel. The trader builds a Fibonacci channel along the trend and sees that pullbacks have frequently found support at the 38.2% channel line before continuing higher.
When price retraces back to that same line again, the trader uses it as a reference point for a prospective long entry, not a certainty, but a level that has repeatedly proved its usefulness in the context of this particular trend.
Fibonacci Ellipse
A Fibonacci ellipse is a more complex charting tool that is not as widely used, but superimposes an elliptical shape over price action and scales it according to the Fibonacci ratios. The ellipse aims to capture both the price and time variables of a market move in a single geometric shape, and the price should lie within the ellipse’s boundary, indicating the direction of the trend.
The ellipse is more complex than other Fibonacci tools and is not as widely interpreted or understood as other, more popular tools, even by technical analysts who are adept at the rest of the Fibonacci arsenal. Typically, it is seen more in traders who are analytical, use price, time, and geometry, and use specialized charting software.
Example: A technical analyst, studying an equity rally over a multi-month period, plots a Fibonacci ellipse from the beginning and middle of this trend. The upper limit of the ellipse is near where the price stalls and reverses. This is something the analyst considers as confirmation that the tool added real value, but he emphasizes that it should be used in conjunction with other types of analysis, not alone.
Fibonacci Extension
Fibonacci extensions are price levels that extend past the end of a price movement, and are used to determine the potential continuation of a trend after a retracement has ended. Extensions are useful to answer the next question: If the trend continues, where is it likely to go?
The key extension levels are 127.2%, 138.2%, 161.8%, and 261.8% of the initial move, with 161.8% being the most widely watched. Traders use them to add price targets to existing trades, or to find price levels where a trend may be losing momentum and is ready to reverse.
Example: A stock goes from $50 to $80 and then returns to $68 – a clean 38.2% retracement. Trades made at the retracement level are looking for a profit target. They then see that the 161.8% extension of the $50-$80 price range is at $98.60.
Their target is not based on magic numbers but rather on the fact that there are enough other participants focused at the same level to create a “self-fulfilling” area of interest where selling pressure tends to build.
Fibonacci Fan
The Fibonacci fan is a technical indicator that forms diagonal trend lines from a major price swing, either a swing high or a swing low, at Fibonacci ratios of 38.2%, 50%, and 61.8%. These lines diverge across the chart and form dynamic zones of support & resistance that gain significance as the price nears them.
The fan levels are not horizontal but slope over time, such that the same Fibonacci level interacts with price at different values depending on the time of interaction. They are used by traders to identify potential zones of support or resistance in a long-term trend, or overhead resistance or support in a recovering market.
Example: A trader plots a Fibonacci fan from the high of the sell-off that they had just experienced, all the way down to the low point of the sell-off. When the price bounces, it follows a strong rally till it reaches the 38.2% fan line, after which it stalls and struggles for several sessions.
The trader who was observing the fan had already decided and had a strategy in mind: either move his stop-loss on the shorts closer to the price or find a short opportunity when he saw clear rejection at that fan level.
Fibonacci Spiral
The Fibonacci spiral is a geometric interpretation of the Fibonacci sequence, which is found throughout nature in shells, galaxies, hurricanes, and plant growth, and some technical analysts try to apply it to price and time charts to locate price and time turning points. The spiral expands in accordance with the golden ratio, and in markets, the theory is that the price will turn or accelerate when it reaches the spiral’s curves.
It is a more philosophical form of technical analysis and is met with skepticism by traders with quantitative minds. It is not really the property of the spiral that is significant, but rather the discipline it gives one when deciding on the location of important reference points.
Example: A geometrically minded trader creates a long-term chart of a commodity index and applies a Fibonacci spiral, using a major historical bottom and a subsequent major peak as reference points. There’s a significant market top right where the spiral’s outer curve crosses the price.
It can be a true, meaningful pattern or just a coincidence, but it is not the only factor the trader considers when making a trading decision.
Fibonacci Studies
The family of Fibonacci technical analysis tools is called Fibonacci studies, including the Fibonacci retracements, extensions, fans, arcs, channels, and time zones. They are all built on the same mathematical principles: Fibonacci ratios, which include 23.6%, 38.2%, 61.8%, and 161.8% (charting tools also include 50%, which is not a true Fibonacci ratio but represents a major market psychological level).
It’s never been conclusively proven whether these ratios reflect an underlying mathematical aspect of human nature or are merely self-fulfilling due to many traders watching the same levels. Despite differing opinions about the theory behind them, Fibonacci levels are widely adopted across asset classes and time frames, making them relevant in practice.
Example: If a currency trader missed the bull market in the short term, they would use the Fibonacci retracement on the recent swing as a re-entry signal. The price has reversed back to the 61.8% level and formed a clear rejection candle. The trader goes long at that retracement level, setting their profit target at the previous high.
The level held, and the trade was made, whether it was a cosmically significant level or just where orders were able to get stuck.
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