
On Monday, major US indices rallied sharply, with the S&P 500 up 1%, Nasdaq gaining 1.2%, and the Dow rising 0.9%, supported by declines in oil and strength in tech stocks, including Nvidia.
Despite the rebound, uncertainty persisted around securing shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices rose around 2% today, with Brent above $102 and WTI near $96.
Investors are also watching upcoming Fed decisions and key earnings, while concerns grow that rising risks, especially a weakening labor market, could challenge the broader economic outlook.
In early trading today, U.S. stock futures edged lower, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Dow futures all slipping around 0.2%, following a strong rebound in the previous session driven by cooling oil prices.
Gold holds modest gains but remains below $5,050, lacking strong bullish momentum despite ongoing geopolitical tensions. The continued conflict is supporting safe haven demand. However, rising oil prices and inflation concerns are reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may keep rates higher for longer, which limits upside for gold and keeps bullish sentiment cautious.
In the forex market, EURUSD edged lower during the Asian session, struggling to build on its recent rebound and trading just below the 1.1500 level, with downside limited ahead of key central bank events.
Focus is on the Federal Reserve decision on Wednesday and the European Central Bank meeting on Thursday, as rising oil prices and inflation concerns linked to the Iran conflict shape policy expectations and will likely drive the pair’s next move.
Additionally, The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) raised interest rates by 25 basis points to 4.1% as expected, marking a second consecutive hike and bringing rates to their highest level since April 2025, as inflation remains above target.
The decision reflects persistent inflation pressures, supported by a tight labor market and strong economic growth, with risks further elevated by the Middle East conflict driving energy prices higher. Policymakers warned that inflation is likely to stay above the 2–3% target range for some time, justifying the rate hike.
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