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Today Fundamental Analysis: U.S. Indices Recover Slightly After Their Biggest Decline Since April

August 4, 2025, 07:59

Stock futures rose Monday despite investor concerns over Trump’s new tariffs raising inflation and economic slowdown fears. S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq 100 futures climbed 0.4%. Dow Jones futures gained 0.35%.

Stocks follow a volatile week where major U.S. Indices posted significant losses, breaking weeks of market gains. The S&P 500 fell 2.4%, the worst week since May. Dow Jones dropped 2.9%, the worst week since April, and Nasdaq declined 2.2%

Friday’s decline followed a disappointing July jobs report and concerns over Trump’s executive order implementing  new reciprocal tariffs ranging between 10% and 41% on many trading partners. Investors are evaluating implications of a weaker labor market, with reduced expectations for a September rate cut after five consecutive meetings without change.

Oil prices fell during the Asian session on Monday after OPEC+ agreed to increase September production. Brent crude futures dropped 0.6% to $69.21 while U.S. West Texas Intermediate fell 0.59% to $66.92.

OPEC+ approved a 547,000 barrel daily production boost for September, pursuing market share amid Russian supply concerns.

OPEC+ cited improved economic conditions and low inventories for their decision. The group meets again September 7 to discuss possible reinstatement of 1.65 million bpd cuts.

Gold prices rose 2% to a one-week high on Friday as weak U.S. Payroll data increased the Fed rate cut expectations and new tariffs boosted safe-haven demand. The precious metal reached $3,363 per ounce, up 2% and 0.4% for the week. Silver rose 0.7% to $37.17

Markets now expect two rate cuts by year-end, starting September, though the Fed recently kept rates at 4.25%-4.50% with Powell noting no decision about September.

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