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Today Fundamental Analysis: US Markets Mostly Rise As Investors Await Non-Farm Payroll Data

July 3, 2025, 07:01
US Markets Mostly Rise As Investors Await Non-Farm Payroll Data

ADP reported private sector job losses in June, the first contraction since March 2023 and contrary to economists’ forecasts of 100,000 new jobs.  Investors prioritized the trade news over job losses, pushing the S&P 500 to a new closing high.

Vietnamese stocks hit a three-year high as markets await details on the U.S.-Vietnam trade deal that President Donald Trump announced Wednesday. The U.S. will impose a 20% tariff on Vietnamese imports while Vietnam will have zero Tariff. This comes as Trump’s 90-day tariff pause nears its end.

Vietnam’s benchmark index rose 0.3% to its highest since April 2022. Japan’s Nikkei 225 fell 0.15% and Topix lost 0.21%. South Korea’s Kospi gained 0.77%. Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 added 0.13%. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng dropped 0.64%, while China’s CSI 300 added 0.14%

US Stocks faced pressure after ADP reported private sector job losses of 33,000 in Jun, the first decline since March 2023 and far below economists’ 100,000 growth forecast.

While ADP data often poorly predicts the government’s nonfarm payrolls report due Thursday (forecast: 110,000 jobs), another miss could trigger a Fed rate cut in July. The CME FedWatch tool shows a 23% chance of a cut, up from 21% yesterday.

Traders also monitored Trump’s tax bill, which narrowly passed the Senate Tuesday but faces GOP holdouts in the House.

In the Forex market, the US dollar recovered following two weeks of losses as the dollar index revisited 97 levels on Wednesday. EURUSD failed to close above the psychological resistance level 1.1800. GBPUSD dropped 0.8% to 1.3637

Gold rose for the third day in a row as the price of an ounce reached $3,370. Silver jumped 1.48% to $36.76 as it potentially heads toward the yearly high of $37.30

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