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Today Fundamental Analysis: US Indices Fall as Markets Await Inflation Numbers in the US

August 12, 2025, 06:55

Stock futures fell early Tuesday as markets await fresh inflation data. Dow Jones futures edged up 0.1%, while Nasdaq 100 futures dipped 0.2% and S&P 500 futures declined 0.1%. Nvidia and AMD have agreed to pay the US government 15% of Chinese revenues to secure export licenses for their chips. Previously, the US banned selling powerful AI chips to China over national security concerns. Under the deal, both companies will share 15% of their Chinese chip revenues with the US government.

Investors are focused on Tuesday’s CPI report for clues about Fed interest rate decisions, with the S&P 500 near record highs. Economists expect CPI numbers to be 2.8% on a yearly basis.

Thursday’s PPI report will provide additional inflation insights before the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting and September policy decision. Markets currently price in an 85% probability of a September rate cut, according to the CME FedWatch Tool.

Asia-Pacific markets rose Tuesday, with Japan’s Nikkei 225 hitting a record high as investors react to the extended U.S.-China trade truce giving both economies time to negotiate.Trump’s 90-day trade truce extension with China could be positive for Hong Kong-listed stocks.

Australia’s central bank cut its interest rate by 25 basis points on Tuesday to 3.6% amid low inflation, allowing monetary easing to stimulate the slowing economy. The Reserve Bank of Australia also downgraded its 2025 GDP forecast to 1.7% from 2.1%, due to weak public demand.

In the commodities market, gold prices dropped 1.6% as Trump said Monday that gold won’t face tariffs, overturning a U.S. customs ruling that would have imposed duties on Swiss gold imports.

And in the crypto market, the SEC and Ripple Labs are ending their legal battle after jointly dismissing appeals in their XRP lawsuit. Ripple was ordered to pay $125 million instead of the SEC’s requested $2 billion, leading to appeals from both sides.

The SEC initiated the case during Trump’s first term. His promise to end crypto enforcement in his second term has led to the SEC abandoning multiple crypto lawsuits. Settlement progress has driven XRP up more than 100% from April’s $1.79 low to July’s $3.56 peak.

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