
U.S. stock futures rose Monday following Trump’s announcement that the U.S. and EU agreed to lower tariffs to 15%, down from his earlier threat of 30% on most EU imports. The 15% rate is lower than Trump’s threatened 30% but higher than the EU’s hoped-for 10% baseline. The EU agreed to purchase $750 billion in U.S. energy and invest an additional $600 billion in the U.S.
Questions remain about specifics and timing of EU investments, but the agreement follows weeks of uncertain trade talks.
Dow Jones futures rose 0.4%, S&P 500 futures gained 0.4%, and Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.5%. Markets are expanding last week’s gains driven by strong earnings and trade deals with Japan and Indonesia.
This week, investors and traders await major tech earnings, a Fed meeting, Trump’s tariff deadline, and inflation data. The Fed meets Tuesday and Wednesday, likely maintaining rates at 4.25-4.5% while possibly signaling September cut prospects. Thursday’s PCE inflation report will show the tariffs’ impact, with expectations of year-over-year inflation rising to 2.4% from 2.3%, and monthly inflation increasing to 0.31% from 0.14%.
Jobs data this week includes JOLTS (Tuesday), ADP report (Wednesday), jobless claims (Thursday) and July’s jobs report (Friday). Economists expect 115,000 jobs added in July (down from June’s 147,000) and unemployment rising slightly to 4.2% from the previous reading of 4.1%.
In the Forex market, EURUSD broke above 1.1770 before it reversed back toward 1.1740. USDJPY briefly crossed 148.00, but still struggles to maintain these levels.
Gold opened lower on Monday as it traded as low as $3,312, pressured by the U.S-Euro deal announcement. However, the precious metal recovered quickly and broke above $3,340. Silver fell below $39 per ounce at market open and it’s currently fluctuating in the $38.00-$38.40 range.
The crypto market benefited from the trade deal announcement as risk on sentiment improves. Bitcoin jumped more than 2% nearing the psychological level $120,000. Ether is now trading at $3,936, its highest level in 2025. Altcoins like Solana, XRP, and Cardano also opened higher this week.
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