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Minutes from the Federal Reserve’s September meeting showed that Fed members were strongly in favor of lowering interest rates, largely agreeing that the move was necessary due to weakness in the labor market. The main point of contention was how many more rate cuts should occur in 2025. Most policymakers supported two or three total cuts for the year, including the quarter-point reduction approved at the September 17 meeting, which brought the federal funds rate to 4%–4.25%.
The Fed’s projections showed a slight 10–9 majority supporting additional quarter-point cuts at each of the two remaining meetings this year, and one more cut each in 2026 and 2027, before rates stabilize near 3% long term.
Members also discussed tariffs and generally agreed that the tariffs would cause only a temporary rise in prices, not lasting inflation. The meeting’s tone aligned with market expectations.
A new complication for the Fed is the ongoing government shutdown, which has halted economic data releases from the Labor and Commerce departments. If the shutdown continues into the Octpber. 28–29 FOMC meeting, the Fed could be forced to make decisions without fresh data on inflation, jobs, or spending, increasing uncertainty around the next rate move.
U.S. stock futures edged higher earlier today after the S&P 500 closed at a new all-time high. Futures for the S&P 500 rose about 0.2%, the Nasdaq 100 gained over 0.2%, and Dow Jones futures added 60 points. The Nasdaq 100 jumped more than 1% yesterday and reached a new record high of 25,160.
There are no major economic data releases Thursday due to the U.S. government shutdown, but investors will closely watch Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks which could give hints at future monetary policy.
AMD shares surged 11% on Wednesday, extending a remarkable rally sparked by news that OpenAI plans to buy billions of dollars’ worth of AI chips from the company. AMD’s market capitalization has reached $380 billion, marking a 43% jump for the week.
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