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Today Fundamental Analysis: Stocks Rise Despite US Government Shutdown, Investors Await NFP Numbers

October 2, 2025, 09:46

U.S. stock futures were little changed in early trading today after the S&P 500 closed at a record high, with investors largely shrugging off the new government shutdown. Dow futures slipped 0.06%, S&P futures fell 0.04%, and Nasdaq futures were flat. On Wednesday, the S&P 500 rose 0.3%, Nasdaq gained 0.4%, and Dow added 43 points (0.1%).

Short-term volatility is expected in the market, but investors remain optimistic due to strong Q3 earnings expectations, AI-driven growth from major tech firms, and anticipated Fed rate cuts, with the next decision on October 29.

However, this shutdown could weigh more heavily given elevated valuations, inflation concerns, and Trump’s threat of permanent federal job cuts. A major issue is the data blackout, as Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report will not be released.

In the crypto market, Bitcoin surged past $119,000, fueled by strong institutional inflows and optimism despite the ongoing U.S. government shutdown.

U.S. Spot Bitcoin ETFs attracted nearly $1 billion in just two days, reversing last week’s $897.6M outflow.

Despite macro uncertainty, Bitcoin is rallying strongly on surging ETF inflows and renewed institutional confidence.

Gold is climbing toward $3,900, hitting fresh record highs on strong safe-haven demand. The U.S. government shutdown, and expectations of two more Fed rate cuts this year are boosting gold. Continued dollar weakness is adding support. Despite overbought conditions, momentum remains bullish, though a short-term pullback or consolidation is possible.

Investors now await U.S. ADP jobs report and ISM Manufacturing PMI.

U.S. private payrolls fell by 32,000 in September, the steepest drop in two and a half years, highlighting a weakening labor market amid the government shutdown that has halted official jobs data releases.

Economists expected a gain of 45,000, but August was also revised down to a 3,000 job loss from a reported 54,000 addition. Despite Q2 growth of 3.8% and Q3 tracking near 3.9%, Fed officials warn of risks that labor demand could weaken further, raising unemployment above its current 4.3%.

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