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Today Fundamental Analysis: Oil Prices Drop after Venezuela President is Overthrown

January 5, 2026, 08:03

Oil prices slipped slightly after the overthrow of Venezuela’s President Nicolas Maduro, as markets weighed uncertainty over future supply. WTI fell to $56.41 per barrel and Brent to $60.17. President Trump said U.S. investment in Venezuela’s oil sector is a key goal as Venezuela holds the world’s largest proven oil reserves but currently produces only about 800,000 barrels per day. The short term impact on oil prices is unclear, with risks of supply disruptions.

In the forex market, The U.S. Dollar Index remains firm within its recent range, keeping pressure on major FX pairs. The Dollar Index reached 98.80 today. EUR/USD has slipped below 1.1700 to a low of 1.1677 and could extend losses toward 1.1600 if the USD held strong. The dollar also appreciated against the Japanese Yen, USDJPY rose to 157.29 during the Asian session. The Sterling Pound is also down today against the USD with the next support level at 1.3400

Equity markets show mixed but generally positive momentum. Gold prices remain firmly above $4,400, extending strong intraday gains as global risk aversion intensifies. Safe haven demand surged after the U.S. launched strikes in Venezuela and captured President Nicolás Maduro.

Expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts later this year are also supporting gold, outweighing the impact of a firmer U.S. dollar. Markets are increasingly pricing in a March rate cut and potentially more easing ahead. With the dollar unable to cap gold’s advance, the bullish bias remains intact. Investors are now focused on key U.S. economic data this week, especially Friday’s Nonfarm Payrolls, which will shape Fed expectations and the next directional move in gold.

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