
Today, China maintained its benchmark lending rates for the fourth straight month despite the Fed’s recent rate cut. The People’s Bank of China kept one-year loan prime rate at 3.0% and five-year rate at 3.5%. The last rate cut by the central bank was a 10 basis point cut in May to boost the economy. Monday’s decision aligned with economists’ expectations that China would postpone stimulus amid the recent market rally, despite signs of economic weakness.
The CSI 300 index opened higher Monday before falling 0.2%. China’s economy weakened in August with key indicators missing targets. Retail sales grew only 3.4% while industrial output slowed to 5.2%, its lowest since August last year.
In the US, stock futures dipped slightly in early trading after a strong week that saw the Dow and S&P 500 reach new all-time highs. Dow futures fell 0.1%, while S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 futures dropped 0.13% and 0.15% respectively. Last week, indices advanced solidly with S&P 500 and Dow rising 1.2% and 1%, while Nasdaq jumped 2.2%. The Russell 2000 also gained 2.2%, marking its seventh consecutive weekly increase.
These gains followed the Fed’s quarter-point rate cut, the first cut since December. After initial volatility, investors interpreted this as a dovish signal amid a slowing labor market. Markets now expect two more cuts this year, according to CME FedWatch Tool.
This week investors await the PCE price index, the Fed’s preferred inflation metric, which may show elevated pressures, though investors expect inflation to remain sufficiently controlled for the Fed to maintain its current policy stance.
Gold rose 1.15% to $3685, marking its fifth consecutive weekly gain. Prices hover just below the all-time high of $3707, supported by Fed policy, macro risks, and strong physical demand. The Fed’s 25-basis-point cut strengthened gold’s position. Despite Powell’s caution, his approach suggests flexibility amid above-target inflation and softening labor data.
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