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BlackRock Geopolitical Risk Indicator (BGRI)

An index produced by BlackRock that quantifies how much attention financial markets are paying to geopolitical risk at any given time. The methodology scans broker research, news articles, and financial commentary for mentions of specific risks; escalation in particular regions, trade tensions, conflict, sanctions; and converts the textual signal into a numerical reading.

The BGRI is most useful as a relative measure rather than an absolute one. It tells you whether the market is more or less worried about geopolitics today than three months ago, not whether geopolitical risk is “objectively” high. BlackRock publishes both an aggregate index and breakdowns by specific risk theme, which is often the more interesting cut.

Example: The BGRI spiked sharply in February 2022 around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, then again in October 2023 with the Hamas attack on Israel and the Gaza war. The aggregate index tracked the rolling intensity of analyst attention, even as specific risk components rotated as different conflicts moved into and out of focus.

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