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Baltic Dry Index (BDI)

A daily price benchmark for shipping dry bulk commodities (iron ore, coal, grain, cement) across major sea routes. Published by the Baltic Exchange in London, the index averages rates across vessel classes (Capesize, Panamax, Supramax, Handysize), each handling different cargo sizes and routes.

The BDI is one of the more honest indicators in finance. Shipping demand is a leading indicator of industrial activity, because raw materials get shipped before they get smelted, refined, or built into things. And shipping rates are set by physical supply and demand for vessels; there’s no central bank manipulating them, no buyback programme propping up the index. When freight rates move, something real is moving.

It’s also volatile. Vessel supply is slow to adjust (ships take years to build, years to scrap), so demand shocks translate into massive price swings. A BDI move of 30% in a month is unremarkable.

Example: The BDI peaked above 11,000 in May 2008, the month commodity demand from China was at its frothiest. By December, after Lehman, it had crashed to 663. A 94% drop in seven months. No other major financial index moved like that. The index was screaming “trade has stopped” weeks before the macro data caught up.

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