إخلاء المسؤولية: تُعد عقود الفروقات أدوات مالية معقدة تنطوي على مخاطر عالية قد تؤدي إلى خسارة أموالك بسرعة بسبب استخدام الرافعة المالية. قبل البدء بالتداول،
عليك التأكد من فهمك الكامل لكيفية عمل عقود الفروقات، وتقييم ما إذا كنت قادرًا على تحمّل مخاطر الخسارة العالية.
منصة الويب MT5
الكل
Chinese Renminbi (CNY)
The official name of China’s currency. The Mandarin translation of the word is Renminbi (RMB), which translates to “people’s currency. The currency used is the yuan. The difference is important: The currency system is renminbi, the denomination is yuan. Saying “I’ll pay in renminbi” is correct; the amount is expressed in yuan.
The Chinese currency is a managed float. Every day, the People’s Bank of China releases a central parity rate, or “fix”, against a group of currencies of which the US dollar is the largest. The onshore rate (CNY) may fluctuate within a range of values from either side of that fix. An offshore market in Hong Kong (CNH) trades more freely and is utilized by foreign investors without gaining access to mainland capital control restrictions.
Sometimes the two rates do not move in tandem, especially when there is a capital-flow stress. If they do, the PBOC’s direction of the currency is reflected in the direction in which it sets the fix compared to the previous close and market expectations.
Example: The PBOC sets a stronger-than-expected fix on a day when the dollar is broadly rallying. For markets, this is a strong message that China is not willing to allow the yuan to devalue. USD/CNH pulls back from session highs as traders who had been light on the long USD side reduce their exposure.
Chinese Yuan (CNY)
The unit of account of China’s renminbi currency. One yuan equals 10 jiao and 100 fen (no longer in use). Notes are issued from 0.1 yuan to 100 yuan. In foreign exchange markets, CNY refers to the onshore yuan traded within the PBOC-managed bands of the Foreign Exchange Trade System (CFETS) in China.
The offshore yuan, known as CNH, is traded in Hong Kong, which isn’t subject to capital controls. The two prices move hand-in-hand in normal times, but have parted ways in stress periods when the price signals from the onshore market don’t make the trip to the offshore market so clean.
The yuan’s foreign status has been constantly improving. It has been added to the IMF’s portfolio of special drawing rights, and its presence in central bank reserves is increasing, though the dollar and euro still dominate. A shift in dollar dependency towards yuan settlement is now underway in China’s Belt and Road lending and bilateral trade deals in corridors where Beijing has influence.
Example: A multinational’s treasury team is paying close attention to the PBOC daily fix. If the fix is meaningfully lower than anticipated, the team changes its hedging strategy, i.e., sells CNY forward to secure a lower conversion rate before the dollar value of the company’s yuan-denominated revenues decreases further.
Choppy market
A market condition characterized by frequent and unpredictable reversals and no sustained directional trend. Price bounces up and down and up again, without establishing any clear bias. The volume is often low or unpredictable and the bid-ask spread widens for thinner instruments. Most of the technical signals are false positives. Breakouts don’t work. Stops get hit in both directions.
Trend-following strategies are a dying breed in choppy markets. If your system is designed to catch momentum; buy breakouts, sell breakdowns; a choppy environment will give you a string of small losses as every signal whipsaws back against you before it develops into a move. The only defences are sitting on your hands and position sizing.
Chop tends to come in periods of macro uncertainty when there is a lot of news but no clear direction (pre Fed meeting weeks, earnings seasons, contested elections) or in low liquidity windows such as August in Europe or the period between Christmas and New Year.
Example: European equity markets spent much of the middle part of 2023 in a classic choppy range. The Stoxx 600 has been range-bound between roughly 450 and 470 for three months, offering no sustained trend in either direction. Trend-following CTAs were bled steadily by whipsaws. Mean-reversion traders who sold the top of the range and bought the bottom did better. But only as long as the range held, which it didn’t eventually.
Christine Lagarde
The president of the European Central Bank, one of the most vocal key voices in international monetary policy. Prior to the ECB, she was Managing Director at the International Monetary Fund, the first woman to occupy either position.
Lagarde is a lawyer, not an economist. This affects her style in material ways. She is unlikely to engage in technical arguments, preferring consensus-building and precise communication qualities that are crucial at the ECB, where decisions are taken by a 26-member Governing Council across economies with different inflation and growth paths.
Her tenure at the ECB has coincided with the post-pandemic inflation surge, the tightest rate-hike cycle for the euro since its inception, and the easing of that cycle. She is also instrumental in leading the institution through energy-price shocks and geopolitical upheavals on Europe’s eastern border.
Her press conferences are closely monitored in the markets. Expressions such as “data-dependent” and “meeting-by-meeting” are not placeholders but are very clear indicators of the ECB’s upcoming decisions.
Example: Lagarde refuses to put her toe in the water in a post-decision press conference and reiterates that policy will be data-dependent. But it’s EUR/USD volatility that rises as traders dig for every word, every turn of phrase to catch the sense of the implied optionality she has left open, and the sense of when it will be repriced.
Christmas Grinch
An informal term used to describe the absence of a Santa Claus Rally during the period of the last five trading days of December and the first two days of January. In that time, when markets crash or just fail to go anywhere, traders and financial media refer to the Christmas Grinch, Dr. Seuss’s stealthy character who takes away the joy of Christmas.
Historically, the S&P 500 has outperformed its normal returns during this time frame, a concept coined by Yale Hirsch, the founder of the Santa Claus Rally. The theory is that it is a mix of low institutional volume, year-end tax-loss harvesting fade, and seasonal retail optimism. The historical trend is barely positive, but it doesn’t hold up in a significant number of years.
The secondary meaning is a forecasting signal: Hirsch noted that years when the window opens negatively tend to be disappointing the year after. It’s a small sample, and there’s no cause-and-effect, but it’s part of a larger January barometer framework that is monitored by seasonal analysts.
Example: A surprise hawkish central bank communication surprises markets in the last week of December. Stocks have sold down in the Santa Claus window, and the end of the year sees a negative close. Seasonal traders are looking for the Grinch signal, decreasing their long exposure before the new year, and reminding clients that historical forward-year correlation is a warning sign.
Circulating Supply
The number of coins or tokens that are in circulation and can be traded in the cryptocurrency market. It does not include coins locked by the founding teams, tokens reserved for future sale, or coins permanently burned.
In calculating market capitalization, the denominator is the circulating supply; that is, market capitalization equals price multiplied by circulating supply. That’s why the market cap of two tokens with the same price can differ significantly, one with 10 million coins in circulation and the other with 10 billion.
The distinction between circulating supply and maximum supply is relevant to tokenomics analysis. A high locked-to-circulating supply ratio indicates that future unlocked supply will be an additional selling force. There is a risk that tokens that appear inexpensive on the circulating market cap will look very expensive when valued on a fully diluted basis.
Investors independently verify circulating supply statements against on-chain data because the category can be manipulated: teams have been known to count locked tokens as circulating to inflate apparent market capitalization rankings.
Example: A DeFi token has a circulating supply of 50 million coins and a maximum supply of 1 billion. The remaining 950 million are in the form of staking rewards for five years. A trader who only factors in the current circulating supply of the token grossly underestimates the dilutive impact of future supply that will hit the market over the life of the contract.
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